Superdelegate Coup Hoax

The superdelegate coup is a hoax put on by the DNC and the corporate media establishment with the goal of demoralizing the Bernie Sander supporters in an effort to discourage them from getting out the vote during the Democratic State primaries.

In 2008 the DNC and the corporate media establishment did not want Barack Obama to win at this point in the election cycle either and they were playing the same game. Then during the Democratic Convention the superdelegates followed the pledged delegates and got behind the popular selection established by the Democratic State primaries.

The fact remains, however that if the superdelegates where to overturn the popular vote in July during the Democratic convention, the Democratic Party would have a REAL PROBLEM! And the problem would not just affect the presidential race. Democrats at every level would be severely hurt by such a moronic, self destructive move. The Democratic Party would be severely damaged going into the general election and Jill Stein of the Green Party would be the likely beneficiary, getting 3-5% of the vote; probably enough to ensure a Republican win.

Primary Math Sans Superdelegate Coup Hoax

As of Monday, March 7, 2016 the primary math to a Bernie Sanders win is pretty simple. At this time Bernie Sanders has 480 pledged delegates to 675 for Hillary Clinton. That is a difference of 195 pledged delegates. Of the 4051 total available pledge delegates 1155 have been assigned to date so there are 2896 left to pledge in the remaining primaries. 195 is 6.7% of 2896 so if Bernie Sanders wins the remaining states by an average of 6.8% or better he will be the nominee.

If there is a tie the unpledged delegates will clearly go for Hillary Clinton.

Another way to state this is if Bernie Sanders ties Hillary Clinton on average during all the remaining states and wins California by 41 points, Bernie Sanders wins the primary election. The article Bernie’s Narrow Path to Victory: a Statistical Analysis has a more nuanced State by State analysis of a path to a Bernie Sanders Democratic Primary win sans the superdelegate hoax.

Debunk the Superdelegate Coup Hoax--Bernie’s Narrow Path to Victory: a Statistical Analysis
Counter Punch: Bernie’s Narrow Path to Victory: a Statistical Analysis

Superdelegate Coup Realness

Currently the DNC and the corporate media are using the unpledged delegates to discourage the Bernie Sanders supporters from getting out the vote. It is pretty clear, however that if Bernie Sanders ends up winning the pledge delegate race the unpledged delegates will need to back Bernie Sanders or the Democratic Party will self destruct the 2016 election. Overthrowing the popular primary vote would not only hurt the presidential race, but it would filter down to every Democrat in the running, so the convention floor will not let that happen, just like they didn’t in 2008.


Author: Paul de Jong

Unapologetic Opinionated Progressive. If Jimmy Carter had had a second term we wouldn't be worried about Global Warming now. If Bernie Sanders had won in 2016 the World would be in a better place. I watched the entire Iran-Contra trial live on CSpan. Elections matter.